P302Rivals Football - Chelsea FC
Week 25 Maths Update
by cfcww, 14/02, 11:36

See no reason to move from the 88 points target which means its now 9 wins and a draw from the last 13 or even 8 wins and 4 draws! City at Home, United Away out of the top six but two tough aways coming up in March at West Ham & Stoke but still six out of the bottom eleven to play at home starting with Swansea on the 25th plus Bournemouth Away. There is still only 8 points separating the bottom seven teams

City look the main danger now but need to win 12 and draw one of their last 13 to get to 89, if they lose one and win 12 they will have to rely on goal difference which is currently 12 behind us. Last nights 2-0 away at the joint 2nd worse defence was probably a missed opportunity to puit a dent in the GD. City still have four out of the top six to play and with their game next weekend postponed as Utd are in the EFLC Final, there is a chance that from 19th March onwards they may have to play Liverpool (H), Arsenal (A), Chelsea (A) & Utd (H) n consecutive games whilst also being away to Monaco on the 15th March. Fixture congestion is our friend! A win at home to Swansea for us with City not playing could pile more pressure on them.

Spurs now have to win all the 13 Games they have left to get to 89. they still have Arsenal & Utd at home but have four away trips to sides in the relegation battle. They start back in the Europa League this week so hopefully will suffer some long journeys!

Arsenal also have to win all 13 games they have left to get to 89, they still have Spurs, Liverpool, Utd (A) and City at home. They also do not play next weekend with Southampton being in the EFLC Final. Their run in is probably the easiest although they have a couple of trips to teams fighting to stay up. They start back in the CL this week but are not expected to go much further!

Liverpool need to win their final 13 games to get to 88. They have Arsenal (H) & City (A) left to play. Outside of a Mersey Derby at home and a couple of trips to teams in the relegation battle, they do not have a bad run in.

United can only get to a maximum of 87 from their remaining games. They have us and Arsenal at home and City (A). The Europa league also starts for them this week but have a deeper squad than Spurs in order to cope.

Looking at the last 10 years the average points of the teams coming second is 81.1 but this is skewed slightly by last season and our pretty lame effort in 2010-11 finishing with 71 points. If you take those two seasons out, its 83.6 with United' s 89 points in 2012 being the best 2nd place on GD.